RFID Forecasts, Players and Opportunities 2011-2021

RFID Forecasts, Players and Opportunities 2011-2021

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This report is the summation of extensive research including interviews with RFID adopters and solution providers in the various applicational RFID markets, giving an unprecedented level of insight into the total RFID industry and what is really happening.

Purchasers receive an electronic PDF and (optional) printed copy of this report, a separate functional spreadsheet of the forecasts, and access to report updates throughout the year.

In 2011 the value of the entire RFID market will be $5.84 billion, up from $5.63 billion in 2010. This includes tags, readers and software/services for RFID cards, labels, fobs and all other form factors.

In retail, RFID is seeing rapid growth for apparel tagging. RFID in the form of tickets used for transit will demand 450 million tags in 2011. The tagging of animals (such as pigs, sheep and pets) is now substantial as it becomes a legal requirement in many more territories, with 243 million tags being used for this sector in 2011. This is happening in regions such as China and Australasia. In total, 2.88 billion tags will be sold in 2011 versus 2.31 billion in 2010. Most of that growth is from passive UHF RFID labels.

This comprehensive report from IDTechEx gives the complete picture with detailed forecasts at a price unmatched by others.

Full analysis by each market
Full analysis by each market is given in great detail including in-depth historic data. Over 200 companies are profiled in this report. We give detailed ten year forecasts of the volumes of tags required, their value and the total market value for the following market segments:

Passive RFID
Drugs
Other Healthcare
Retail apparel
Consumer goods
Tires
Postal
Books
Manufacturing parts, tools
Archiving (documents/samples)
Military
Retail CPG Pallet/case
Smart cards/payment key fobs
Smart tickets
Air baggage
Conveyances/Rollcages/ULD/Totes
Animals/Livestock
Vehicles
People (excluding other sectors)
Passport page/secure documents
Other tag applications

Active RFID / battery-assisted
Pharma/Healthcare
Cold retail supply chain
Consumer goods
Postal
Manufacturing parts, tools
Archiving (samples)
Military
Retail CPG Pallet/case
Shelf Edge Labels
Conveyances/Rollcages/ULD/Totes
Vehicles
People (excluding other sectors)
Car clickers
Other tag applications

RFID revenues are given separately by application type for 2005 to 2021, for both active and passive tags
Market analysis by a huge number of parameters
Using new, unique information researched globally by IDTechEx technical experts, we analyze the RFID market in many different ways, with over 180 tables and figures. They include detailed ten year projections for EPC vs non-EPC, high value niche markets, active vs passive, readers, standards, markets by frequency, markets by geographical region, label vs non label, chip vs chipless, markets by application, tag format and tag location. Cumulative sales of RFID are analyzed as are the major players and unmet opportunities. It covers the emergence of new products, legal and demand pressures and impediments for the years to come.

Which sectors are booming and which are under performing? This report examines each sector in turn. Those doing well in numbers sold are sometimes much less impressive in dollars taken and vice versa.
Highly profitable ‘niche’ markets analysed
Major players now and in the future in the various parts of the value chain are identified and the big orders and milestones now and in the future are analysed. Of course, not everyone will want to serve the severely price constrained, highest volume markets. For them, we examine many niches of at least one billion dollars potential that are emerging and many smaller opportunities where there is even less competition. They include:

Passports in the face of new terrorism resulting in new laws
Livestock and food traceability in the face of new laws, bioterrorism, avian flu, BSE, fraud with subsidies etc.
Intermodal containers (Smart and Secure Tradelanes and other initiatives)
Retail apparel
Healthcare
Those in prison and on parole
Ubiquitous Sensor Networks (USN), for warning of natural disasters, military and other purposes

Our forecasts have taken into account the global economic slow down. Looking at the range of applications, the biggest projects, which tend to be government led are usually profitable for suppliers involved. For example, governments mandate tagging passports or cattle. Governments do not need a fast return on investment. In industry, RFID is being applied where it can demonstrate a fairly rapid return on investment. Large industry applications include apparel tagging.

Publisher >> IDTechEx
Report Category: Telecommunications

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1. What is RFID and how can the market be segmented?
1.2. Market projections 2010 to 2021
1.3. Rapid growth
1.4. RFID during turmoil in the global economy
1.5. Contactless smart cards dominate by value
1.6. RFID Forecasts by market
1.7. RFID will not be big in China, it will be huge
1.8. Lessons from the last ten years
1.9. Pallet/case tagging
1.10. Drugs
1.11. Airline Baggage
1.12. Retail apparel, item level
1.13. RFID card and tickets
1.14. Animals
1.15. Logistics, Asset Tracking, Manufacturing
1.16. Follow governments
1.17. Analysis by RFID project numbers
1.18. Leading countries by number of projects
1.19. Biggest applicational sector by number of projects
1.20. Active RFID comes to the fore
1.21. The leading shape of tag – dj vu
1.22. Some things did not change
1.23. Billion dollar niches, sometimes with little competition
1.24. New technology
1.25. Impediments to the growth of RFID markets
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. Definitions
2.1.1. RFID
2.1.2. Chipless/printed RFID
2.1.3. Passive and active RFID
2.2. Tags have different shapes
2.3. The RFID value chain
2.4. Where tags are placed
2.5. The show so far – 1945 to 2010
2.5.1. Cumulative sales by applicational category
2.5.2. Cumulative sales active vs passive
2.5.3. Cumulative sales chip vs chipless
2.5.4. Dominant RFID chip suppliers
2.6. Historic RFID tag sales 2005 to 2010
2.6.1. Progress in 2005
2.6.2. Progress in 2006
2.6.3. Progress in 2007
2.6.4. Progress in 2008
2.6.5. Progress in 2009
2.7. Ultimate potential
2.7.1. Potential for different applications
2.7.2. Tag price sensitivity at highest volumes
2.7.3. Price sensitivity curve for RFID (adoption curve)
2.8. Legal push
2.9. Demand pull
2.10. Constraints on market growth
2.10.2. Impediments to highest volume RFID
3. MARKET BY SPECIFICATION AND EPC RFID
3.1. League table of RFID specifications
3.2. EPCglobal
3.3. Progress with EPC adoption so far
3.4. Forecasting EPC adoption
3.5. Choice of tagging package or product
3.6. EPC successes
3.7. EPC versus Non EPC
3.8. Near Field Communication (NFC)
4. MARKETS BY COUNTRY
4.1. Number of RFID projects by country
4.2. Ongoing importance of the US market
4.3. RFID across four continents
4.4. Projected sales of RFID tags by territory
4.5. Increasing importance of the East Asian market
5. MARKETS FOR PASSIVE RFID
5.1. Passive vs active
5.2. Sub categories of passive tag
5.3. Cost Structure of RFID passive tags – labels
5.4. Passive market by applicational sector
5.5. The main things that are passive tagged
5.6. Passive RFID market by range
5.7. RFID technologies by range and cost
5.7.2. RFID Systems/Middleware
5.8. New passive technologies create new markets
5.8.1. Forecast for chip vs chipless/printed tags
5.8.2. Latest progress with printed RFID
5.8.3. Price advantage the main driver of market gain
6. MARKETS FOR ACTIVE RFID
6.1. Sub categories of active tag
6.2. Project cost, size and payback
6.3. Active market by applicational sector
6.4. The main things that are active tagged
6.5. Active RFID market by range
6.6. Active RFID market by battery type
6.6.1. Energy Harvesting and RFID
6.7. New active technologies create new markets
6.7.1. Hand-held homing devices
6.7.2. New markets – Smart Active Labels
6.7.3. An example of massive ‘niches’
6.8. Technologies facilitating growth
6.9. Forecasts for active RFID tags
6.10. Forecasts for systems
6.10.1. The spend on active RFID systems
6.10.2. Active RFID players
7. MARKET FOR RFID INTERROGATORS
7.1. Overview
7.2. Interrogator numbers
7.3. Interrogator price
7.4. Interrogator market value
8. MARKETS BY FREQUENCY
8.1. Spread of tag sales
8.2. Passive frequencies
8.2.1. Segmenting of the passive UHF market
8.3. Active frequencies
9. MARKET VALUE BY POSITION IN VALUE CHAIN: INTERROGATORS, SOFTWARE, SERVICES ETC
9.1. Market split by position
9.2. Markets for labels, cards and tickets
9.3. Forecasts by tag structures
9.4. NFC, smart card and ticket projections
9.5. Markets by location of tag – item, pallet/case, etc
9.5.1. Item, pallet/case tagging vs smart cards
9.6. Forecasts 2010-2021
9.6.2. Rationale behind each forecast
9.6.3. Ubiquitous Sensor Networks and other possibilities – Malaysia and Korea timelines to 2010
10. MARKET BY APPLICATIONAL SECTOR
10.1. Prevalence of RFID projects for each applicational sector
10.2. Future trend of projects for each applicational sector
10.3. Market size of tags by applicational category
10.4. Current and future forms of payback by applicational sector
10.5. Healthcare and pharmaceuticals
10.6. Postal and courier services
10.7. Retail and Consumer Packaged Goods
10.8. Military and federal
10.9. Airlines and Airports
10.10. Libraries
10.11. Secure access
10.12. Laundry/ rented textiles
10.12.1. State of the art
10.12.2. Payback
10.12.3. Technical requirements and trends
10.12.4. Contrast in store apparel tagging
10.12.5. Laundry tag suppliers
10.12.6. Addressable market
10.12.7. Forecasts
11. LARGEST ORDERS, PRODUCTS, PLAYERS AND OVERSUPPLY/ UNDERSUPPLY: MILESTONES IN FUTURE
11.1. Dynamics of the RFID value chain
11.2. Largest orders, best selling products, dominant suppliers in future
11.2.1. Largest suppliers of chips
11.2.2. Largest suppliers of tags, inlets, straps and detailed value chain for high volume
11.2.3. Largest suppliers of software and services
11.3. Sectors potentially oversupplied or undersupplied
11.3.1. Production capacity for tags
11.3.2. Over and undersupply along the value chain 2010-2021
11.4. Milestones and timelines 2007-2021
11.4.1. Milestones 2007-2021
APPENDIX 1: RFID SOLUTION PROVIDERS
APPENDIX 2: EPCGLOBAL AND THE INTERNET OF THINGS
APPENDIX 3: IDTECHEX RESEARCH AND CONSULTANCY
APPENDIX 4: GLOSSARY
TABLES
1.1. Examples of RFID orders, projects and typical benefits by application
1.2. Total RFID Market Projections in US dollar billions 2010-2021
1.3. Market projections by tag type for 2010-2021
1.4. RFID tag projections by market 2010-2021
1.5. Number (in millions) of passive tags by application 2010-2021
1.6. Average passive tag price per application in US cents 2010-2021
1.7. Value of passive tags by application 2010-2021 (US Dollar Millions)
1.8. Number (in millions) of active tags by application 2010-2021
1.9. Average active tag price per application in US cents 2010-2021
1.10. Value of active tags by application 2010-2021 (US Dollar Millions)
1.11. Number of tags (billions) total RFID market 2011-2021
1.12. Value US$ billion of total RFID market EXCLUDING CARDS 2011-2021
1.13. Number of tags sold by application in 2009 and the total tag value
1.14. Milestones 2007-2021
2.1. Largest suppliers to date
2.2. Where RFID tags are placed – categories used
2.3. Cumulative global sales of RFID tags by applicational category by the end of 2010 in millions
2.4. The cumulative global sales of RFID tags active vs passive in millions to the beginning of 2010
2.5. Cumulative global sales of RFID tags chip vs chipless to the beginning of 2010 in millions
2.6. Deliveries of chipless/printed tags to date by company
2.7. The dominant RFID tag and chip suppliers to start of 2010
2.8. Value of RFID passive tag market in 2005
2.9. Value of RFID active tag market in 2005
2.10. Value Chain 2005
2.11. Value of RFID passive tag market in 2006
2.12. Value of RFID active tag market in 2006
2.13. Value Chain 2006
2.14. Value of RFID passive tag market in 2007
2.15. Value of RFID active tag market in 2007
2.16. Value Chain 2007
2.17. Value of RFID passive tag market in 2008
2.18. Value of RFID active tag market in 2008
2.19. Value Chain 2008
2.20. Value of RFID passive tag market in 2009
2.21. Value of RFID active tag market in 2009
2.22. Value Chain 2009
2.23. Ultimate potential annual global sales of some of the most promising tagged things that have potential for up to one billion tags used yearly.
2.24. Ultimate potential annual global sales for some of the most promising tagged things with potential of over one billion tags yearly.
2.25. Examples of laws and mandates encouraging RFID
2.26. Costs per annum for barcodes
2.27. The main impediments to highest volume RFID
3.1. The pecking order of RFID specifications by RFID tag expenditure in 2010
3.2. Reasons why an organization may want to use EPC
3.3. Reasons why an organization may wish not to use EPC
3.4. When industries may adopt EPC RFID in at least hundreds of millions yearly. Estimates by IDTechEx
3.5. Market for EPC related RFID only – tags, readers, middleware, services etc, in US dollars billions
3.6. Comparison of NFC enabled devices and contactless smart cards.
4.1. Largest number of RFID case studies by application and continent
4.2. Largest number of RFID case studies by tag format and continent
4.3. Largest number of RFID case studies by tag location and continent
4.4. Largest number of RFID case studies by frequency and continent
4.5. Number of tags in billions by territory 2011, 2016, 2021
4.6. Percentage share of numbers of tags by territory 2011, 2016, 2021
4.7. Value, in billions of dollars, of systems/ services/ tags by territory 2011, 2016, 2021
4.8. Percentage share of value of systems/ services/ tags by territory 2011, 2016, 2021
4.9. Leading markets by country for RFID in billions of dollars, systems including tags
4.10. Value $ billions of total RFID market excluding cards 2011, 2016, 2021
4.11. Percentage value $ billions of total RFID market excluding cards 2011, 2016, 2021
5.1. Global market for active vs passive RFID tags by number billions
5.2. Global market for active vs passive RFID tags by average tag price in cents
5.3. Global market for active vs passive RFID tags in billions of dollars
5.4. Approximate cost breakdown for a passive RFID for both UHF and HF, prices are given in US Dollar cents, assuming millions of tags
5.5. Historical sales of chipless RFID tags
5.6. Chipless percentage share of the overall RFID market by numbers 2010-2021. Projection by IDTechEx
5.7. Chipless share of the overall RFID market by numbers 2010-2021. Projection by IDTechEx
6.1. Comparison of some of the typical features of passive vs active RFID
6.2. Unit price of expensive vs low cost tags for active RFID 2010
6.3. Examples of overall spend vs tag spend for some large RFID projects so far
6.4. Main things tagged with active RFID tags in terms of number of projects in the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase or numbers used
6.5. Active RFID in the prison and parole service
6.6. Global potential annually for active RFID systems plus tags in the prison and parole service
6.7. Number (in millions) of active tags by application 2010-2021
6.8. Average active tag price per application in US cents 2010-2021
6.9. Value of active tags by application 2010-2021 (US Dollar Millions)
6.10. Forecast for the value of global sales of RFID systems excluding tags 2010-2021in millions of dollars
6.11. Forecast for the value of global sales of RFID systems including tags, for vehicle clickers, SALs and other applications 2010-2021 in millions of dollars
6.12. Sectors, locations and application examples of Active RFID players
7.1. RFID enabled cellphones worldwide – 2011, 2016, 2021
7.2. Market for RFID interrogators by application, number millions
7.3. Market for RFID interrogators by application, reader price US dollars
7.4. Market for RFID interrogators by application, US dollars billions
8.1. The spread of tag numbers by frequency to the start of 2010
8.2. The spread of tag numbers by frequency forecast for 2010
8.3. The spread of tag numbers by frequency forecast for 2016
8.4. The spread of tag sales % by frequency forecast for 2021
8.5. Future favourite frequencies by format and application
8.6. Active tags by frequency in 2011
8.7. Active tags by frequency in 2021
9.1. The split of the market by position in the value chain by percentage share 2010-2021
9.2. The split of the market by position in the value chain by value 2010-2021
9.3. Breakdown of the tag market by number of tags in millions
9.4. Breakdown of the tag market percentage of tags by numbers
9.5. Breakdown of the tag market value of tags by form by value ($ billion)
9.6. Breakdown of the tag market percentage of tags by value
9.7. Total RFID market value ($ billion)
9.8. Total RFID market percentage of tags by value
9.9. The good and the bad of the different proposed locations of NFC functionality in mobile phones
9.10. Ticket number and unit value 2010-2020
9.11. Examples of leading transport SVC card schemes
9.12. Some of the largest card and ticket schemes in China
9.13. IDTechEx estimates of the RFID sales of some of the leaders in RFID cards and tickets, their parts and their systems in 2009
9.14. Volume sales of tags by application 2010-2021
9.15. Average tag price per application in US cents 2010-2021
9.16. Value of tags by application 2008-2018 (US Dollar Million)
9.17. Rationale behind item and pallet / case forecasts
9.18. Some possibly substantial new locations for RFID tags
10.1. IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase 2010 – number of cases by applicational sector
10.2. Future trends for the applicational sectors with the most projects
10.3. RFID Tag projections by market 2010-2021
10.4. Benefits most commonly sought and payback most commonly claimed by sector
11.1. Examples of some of the larger RFID suppliers and their estimated sales and profit status
11.2. Examples of fundraising in 2005-2009 by 28 RFID businesses
11.3. Cumulative RFID tag sales by number to beginning of 2010
11.4. Examples of dominant companies in the chip to label value chain in 2010
11.5. The trend for RFID software and services in 2010 and 2021
11.6. Some of the companies offering and preparing to offer RFID tags in very high volumes and their current status.
11.7. Parts of the RFID value chain that may be over or undersupplied 2010-2021
11.8. Milestones 2007-2021
FIGURES
1.1. Market comparison by tag type and by value chain position to 2015
1.2. Number of case studies by tag location from the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase
1.3. Number of case studies in the top ten countries from the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase
1.4. Number of case studies split by sector, from the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase
1.5. Number of case studies split by frequency type, from the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase
2.1. The RFID value chain
2.2. An AstraZeneca syringe with chipless RFID tag
2.3. Technologies appropriate to the different levels of tag cost and volume.
2.4. The adoption curve
2.5. The overall price-volume sensitivity envelope
2.6. RFID from cradle to grave
2.7. Marks & Spencer reusable plastic trays for food
2.8. Marks & Spencer paybacks
2.9. Costs per annum for RF Tags
2.10. RFID and the hype cycle for pallets/cases
3.1. The original EPC dream for item level tagging and what really happened
3.2. Procter & Gamble forecast for EPC CPG tagging at pallet, case and item level 2003 to 2010
4.1. Top ten countries by number of case studies on the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase Q3 2010
5.1. Passive RFID applications in packaging and containers by range
5.2. RFID range versus cost
5.3. RFID system being developed for the flower industry
5.4. Standardized EPCIS architecture
6.1. Passive RFID compared with the various types of active RFID
6.2. Read range versus frequency
6.3. Printed batteries from Infinite Power Solutions and the concept by the Smart Active Labels Consortium of using RFID smart labels with similar batteries to boost range in warehouse environments.
6.4. RFID protecting keys against theft or misuse.
6.5. Wristwatch transmitters worn by inmates
6.6. Three phases in the evolution of active RFID
6.7. Systems, devices and interfaces that are now used by active RFID, or combined with it, in small portable devices.
9.1. Cost structure of passive and active RFID projects
9.2. A traditional bullet-like LF tag, left, as used in the shoes of marathon runners for timing and in animals. This is compared with, centre, a label at HF, and right one at UHF, both being the size of a credit card but thinner
9.3. Examples of contactless transactional media
9.4. Japanese train traveller paying for transport by resting a DoCoMo RFID enabled phone on a terminal and receiving a receipt
9.5. Con Tag on a ticket machine that opens up a ticketing application in an RFID phone held nearby.
9.6. Some of the potential stakeholders in the NFC phone value chain
9.7. Basic functionality of an NFC enabled phone
9.8. Trial of NFC phones in Caen in France
9.9. Malaysian project for Ubiquitous Sensor Networks etc
9.10. What is USN in Korea?
9.11. Korean program towards ubiquitous sensor enabled RFID 2004 to 2010 as presented at the IDTechEx conference Smart Labels Asia in Tokyo
10.1. Principle of automatic mail registrations with RFID
10.2. Mobile AMQM – equipment and practical use
10.3. Mail pipeline instrumentation
10.4. GMS RFID Gate
10.5. Tagged mail pieces
10.6. Basic supply chain overview
10.7. Real time monitoring of the RFID infrastructure
10.8. System architecture
10.9. US Navy program for the ship of the future based on RFID and allied technologies
10.10. What part of the problem are we solving?
10.11. Driving adoption
10.12. Examples of laundry tags
10.13. Typical laundry process
10.14. Woven, stitchable RFID tags, the one on the left being HF and the one on the right UHF
10.15. RFID in fibre
10.16. Some laundry tag suppliers
10.17. IDTechEx forecast of global laundry tag market in millions of tags 2010-2020
11.1. Today’s RFID value chain
11.2. Detailed value chain and dynamics
11.3. Detailed value chain for materials aspects
11.4. Position of RFID suppliers to certain sectors, following the methodology of Boston Consulting Group
11.5. How most mergers and acquisitions take companies towards total system supply and system integration/ facilities management to chase the big orders
11.6. High volume item level RFID tagging
11.7. The market for add-on printed RFID
11.8. Competing value chains for tags

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